Mr. Block, at the 2026 International Motor Congress, you will be speaking about CO₂ fleet regulations for new vehicles. What are your ideas and expectations for policymakers?
Tobias Block: Politicians have decided in favor of complete electrification. This is a preliminary technological decision that I consider problematic. Emissions have so far only been measured at the exhaust pipe. The phase-out of combustion engines in 2035 is based on this logic. However, emissions occur throughout the entire life cycle. No vehicle has yet achieved the status of a “zero-emission vehicle.” The logic of CO2 fleet regulation needs to change here.
How much hope does the EU Commission's “Automotive Package” give you in this context?
Tobias Block: The Commission has announced that it will bring forward the revision of CO₂ fleet regulations and publish them as part of the Automotive Package. Various laws play a role in this. These include the revised fleet regulation, the so-called Corporate Fleet Initiative with an electric quota for leasing companies and car rental companies, a “Battery Booster” package, and an “Automotive Omnibus” designed to simplify various laws. According to the EU Commission's proposal, the EU Council and Parliament must now make targeted improvements in line with a technology-neutral approach.
A key term in the debate is the “carbon correction factor” or “renewable fuel coefficient.” What is behind this approach?
Tobias Block: In fleet regulation, legislators assume that all vehicles run on 100 percent fossil fuels. The reality is different: we have proportions of biodiesel, bioethanol, or other renewable components in the fuel mix.
A carbon correction factor reflects precisely this mix. If, for example, the market contains an average of ten percent biodiesel, a new diesel vehicle should be credited with ten percent less CO₂ in fleet regulation.
This may sound trivial, but it would be an important paradigm shift: for the first time, renewable fuels in the real market would be directly credited to the CO₂ balance of vehicle fleets. I am convinced that this step is essential.
Another approach involves a new class of combustion engine vehicles that would run exclusively on CO₂-neutral fuels. What is the eFuel Alliance's position on this?
Tobias Block: This idea is not entirely new. Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing already introduced it in the last revision of fleet regulations. It can now be found in Recital 11 – but nothing has happened since then.
Specifically, it involves creating a separate category for vehicles that run exclusively on CO₂-neutral fuels. To do this, we need to define what a CO₂-neutral fuel is. And how can we prove that a vehicle is actually only being fueled with such fuels?
To answer these questions, we established the so-called “Stuttgart Group” – today it operates as the Working Group of Monitoring Methodologies (WGMM). More than 55 companies are working together there, including Volkswagen, Toyota, Shell, BP, and many others. The goal is to develop robust verification methods.
This includes solutions such as new fuel filler necks that physically separate which fuels can be used, similar to diesel and gasoline. At the same time, digital approaches are being discussed, such as the “Digital Fuel Twin” developed by Bosch, which will also be presented at the Engine Congress. Such digital twins allow the actual fuel supply to be tracked in great detail.
Our vision is to integrate both elements into fleet regulation: firstly, the recognition of the renewable fuel share in the market through the Carbon Correction Factor. Second, a clear opening for a vehicle class in which combustion engines can be powered by 100 percent CO₂-neutral fuels. This would give manufacturers the option of continuing to sell combustion engine fleets in compliance with regulations – alongside battery electric drives.
You already mentioned the global perspective. Europe is discussing bans on combustion engines, while China and the US are sending different signals. How do you interpret this?
Tobias Block: Globally, the picture is completely different. In China, the combustion engine is experiencing a new high as a hybrid. Hybrids are considered “new energy vehicles” in China. This means that combustion engines with electric support are part of the solution.
In the US, we are seeing a sharp decline in sales of electric vehicles as subsidies are phased out. Large pickups, SUVs, and vehicles with eight-cylinder engines continue to sell very well. And manufacturers will, of course, continue to offer them as long as customers demand them.
The forecasts for electrification in Europe were too optimistic. The German government once announced a target of 15 million electric vehicles by 2030. If we achieve half of that, it would already be a great success. The development is more linear than exponential and is heavily dependent on subsidy programs.
Let's take a look at e-fuels themselves. Critics doubt their economic viability and scalability. At the same time, there are numerous project announcements, but only a few final investment decisions. Where do we really stand?
Tobias Block: Despite all the hurdles, I am optimistic that e-fuels will be available in industrial quantities by 2030 at the latest. In Europe, the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sets binding targets for the mineral oil industry. It stipulates that by 2030, at least one percent of the fuel market must be covered by green hydrogen or e-fuels. Some countries are going significantly beyond this. As the eFuel Alliance, we have always advocated for five percent by 2030. But even the quotas currently under discussion will lead to demand of over 30 terawatt hours, or more than three billion liters of diesel equivalent – and we only have figures from 14 member countries. This is an order of magnitude that, combined with high penalties for non-compliance, will force industrial production.
Together with Porsche Consulting, we have looked at the project landscape: there are over 300 announced e-fuel projects worldwide with a theoretical production capacity of around 20 billion liters in 2030. That is enormous, but only about six percent of these projects have a final investment decision so far. The eFuel Alliance is committed to improving the political framework conditions.
You mention the EU criteria. In your opinion, how are e-fuels being unnecessarily slowed down today?
Tobias Block: Many of the requirements make sense, but as a whole they are so restrictive that they tend to prevent rather than guide investment. Here are a few examples: When grid-connected e-fuels or green hydrogen are produced, the electricity must come from new renewable energy plants. These plants may be no more than 36 months old at the time the electrolyzer is commissioned. Electricity consumption must correlate with generation in terms of time – initially on a monthly basis, later on an hourly basis. Production and generation must take place in the same electricity price zone, which is very challenging in countries with multiple zones, such as Sweden or Italy.
Industrial CO₂ point sources may only be used until 2040 and must be subject to an effective CO₂ pricing system – de facto, this is currently only the case in Europe. This effectively rules out industrial CO₂ sources outside Europe.
All in all, this significantly limits production possibilities, drives up costs, and forces e-fuels into a niche market.
Let's look ahead: Do you anticipate a genuine course correction at the EU level in the foreseeable future?
Tobias Block: Many stakeholders have noted that electrification is not progressing at the pace that had been hoped for. Forecasts by experts and consultancies have proven to be overly optimistic. Policymakers are beginning to correct this.
I assume that the Commission will seek to open up the upcoming revision of CO₂ fleet regulations. Together with the positions in the Council and Parliament, it seems realistic that renewable fuels will be taken into account. The decisive factors will be how exactly this will be structured and whether investment-relevant signals will actually be sent in the end.
At the same time, we need significantly higher quotas for renewable fuels in the mineral oil industry so that investments in production are actually triggered. A reform of the energy tax based on CO₂ content is also necessary. If the energy tax on e-fuels were to be abolished, as proposed by the EU Commission, we would be almost 60 cents closer to the business case for gasoline and about 45 cents closer for diesel. That is a huge lever for economic efficiency.
